The Rafale, renowned for its “Omnirole” capabilities (explanation below, check it), aligns perfectly with the capability approach favored by an increasing number of governments. The Rafale actively engages in ongoing Quick Reaction Alert (QRA), air-defense, and air-policing missions. It also handles nuclear deterrence tasks, power projection, external deployments, deep strike operations, ground forces’ air support, reconnaissance tasks, and pilot training exercises. The single-seat Rafale C for the Air Force, the two-seat Rafale B, and the Navy’s single-seat Rafale M share maximum airframe and equipment commonality, boasting similar mission capabilities across the board.

Russian Answer to French Rafale: The Checkmate

The ongoing analysis of recent conflicts where air power played a pivotal role has led to the identification of four key expectations regarding weapon systems among political decision-makers:

Versatility, the ability of a system to perform a variety of missions using the same platform.

Interoperability, the capacity to operate alongside allies in coalition settings, utilizing shared procedures, standards, and real-time communication, and potentially even sharing support systems and equipment.

Flexibility, the capability to execute multiple missions within a single operation, also known as “Omnirole” capability. This adaptability allows for swift transitions between different mission types as demanded by political decisions, ranging from coercive actions to preventive measures, intelligence gathering, protection (Air Superiority), or even mission cancellation up to the last moment.

Survivability, the system’s ability to endure in challenging threat environments, achieved through reduced signatures, advanced electronic warfare systems, efficient weapon systems, reliable equipment, and active security measures.

Tim Felce (Airwolfhound), CC BY-SA 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

The Rafale is relevant against both conventional and asymmetric threats, addresses the evolving needs of the armed forces in a changing geopolitical and security landscape and, with its unlimited potential for growth, consistently leads in technical innovation. The Rafale stands as the epitome of a transformative fighter aircraft, offering a path forward for air forces tasked with achieving more with fewer resources, amidst an ever-evolving strategic and economic climate.

Production and World’s Market

The Rafale’s production backlog has grown to 228 aircraft. This figure includes Indonesia’s confirmation in January 2024 to acquire the remaining 18 aircraft from its 42-aircraft commitment made two years earlier, as well as France’s order for 42 aircraft in December 2023.

During eight-year span, 2026-2033, Dassault is tasked with delivering a total of 174 aircraft for France (including the latest 42-order), Indonesia (42), the United Arab Emirates (80), and Egypt (the final 10 of its 30-aircraft follow-on order). Furthermore, Dassault is currently fulfilling France’s long-delayed order for 27 aircraft placed in 2009, along with 12 to replace those transferred to Greece. Additionally, Greece is still awaiting the final four of the six new Rafales ordered in 2021, along with the extra six from 2022.

Assuming an average production rate of 20 Rafales per year in 2024 and 2025, there would still be 188 aircraft left to deliver between 2026 and 2033. This implies a delivery rate of nearly 24 aircraft annually. Achieving this rate by 2026 seems feasible, given Dassault’s prior experience in boosting production to over 20 aircraft per year when fulfilling orders for Egypt, India and Qatar. However, India’s recent announcement of firm intent to order 27 aircraft for its navy in 2024 could necessitate a production rate closer to 27 aircraft per year. If India proceeds with another 36-aircraft order, as previously indicated, the required delivery rate could exceed 31 Rafales annually for Dassault.